Weekly Crop Commentary - 9/4/2026

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)
Grain markets had another volatile week as traders balanced strong export demand against expectations for a large U.S. crop. Soybeans have found some support from renewed Chinese buying, while corn continues to face pressure from the potential size of the U.S. crop heading into harvest.

U.S. crop conditions remain a focus. Corn was rated 57% good-to-excellent, unchanged from last week but 12 points below last year. Soybeans came in at 58% good-to-excellent, down two points from last week and seven points below last year.

Globally, France's corn crop is struggling after prolonged heat and drought. Only 27% of the crop was rated good-to-excellent as of today, compared with 62% last year. Poor European production could increase the need for corn imports and provide some support to the global market.

Export demand remains a bright spot for U.S. grain. New-crop corn sales are off to a strong start, led by Mexico and Japan. Soybean demand is particularly encouraging, with China purchasing nearly 1 million metric tons of new-crop U.S. soybeans, along with another 192,000 metric tons announced this week. China's continued return to the U.S. soybean market will be an important factor to watch through harvest.
Black Sea tensions are also keeping global grain trade uncertain, with peace talks going back and forth – but will we see one come to fruition?

As we move closer to harvest, the market will be watching actual field yields versus expectations, along with export demand and global production concerns. The USDA's next major supply-and-demand report on September 11 could provide another significant market mover. Have a safe Labor Day weekend! We will be closed on Labor Day.

Cheryl Crawford
Grain Merchandiser, Delaware (Region 2)
Grain markets saw profit taking and a pullback from recent contract highs this week amid rumors of potential peace talks and fluctuating energy prices. 

Prices moved lower after reaching contract highs earlier in the week. Reports that Russian leadership may be open to a peace agreement with Ukraine weighed heavily on wheat futures, with the weakness spilling over into corn and soybean markets.

At the same time, ongoing conflicts in the Black Sea region and Iran continue to create volatility across agricultural markets. Crude oil has hovered around $90 per barrel, tightening diesel supplies as harvest approaches.

Traders are now focused on upcoming USDA reports for confirmation of potential yield adjustments following recent hot and dry weather. Meanwhile, Russia has suspended its grain export tax through the end of the year, adding another factor for markets to digest.

With harvest just around the corner, now is a good time to have a marketing plan in place to help manage risk. Contact your grain merchandiser today, we're here to help you develop a plan that fits your operation.

Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)
Another week closer to harvest! Crops locally have really started to turn with the multiple 90-degree days, and silage is starting to get chopped. Russia/Ukraine’s shuffle of on-and-off “peace deals” was the leading news this week and overall pushed markets lower. Wheat is trading around 50¢ off the highs, corn is around 10¢ off, and beans remain right around the highs. So, if you’re considering making some more new-crop sales, don’t let a day where we’re down a couple cents deter you. We are still right around contract highs in new-crop corn and beans.

The market continues to be fueled by money flow. As of Tuesday (and it’s very possible they’ve added more to their position since then), managed money/funds were long — or “owning” — 465,000 contracts of corn, which would be a new record, along with a long position of 198,000 contracts of soybeans. These massive positions are most likely part of why we’ve seen the markets slow down. Don’t get me wrong, export sales remain strong, and we continue to see daily flash sales to China, but for funds to continue wanting to own commodities, we’re going to need more news to keep things moving. It feels like the market is becoming tired of seeing the same old headlines.

If you still have some unsold grain for this fall or want to start looking at sales out of the bin, please give us a shout. We’d be happy to go over all our options with you and get a plan put together.

Have a great weekend!

Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)
The rally that started last week certainly continued into this week with corn, soybeans, and wheat, all finding some strength. The second half of this week has shown the markets have settled down a bit but not falling apart by any means.

The escalated Russia-Ukraine conflict provided quite a bit of support to the markets and fears of further escalation kept the markets rallying. Moving further into this week, the markets have settled down following a potential peace deal. As the tensions continue, the market seems to be reacting a little less. Although, the wheat market is heavily impacted on grain flow in the Black Sea region.

A couple of other things adding to the market reaction was the EPA announced its latest round of small refinery exemptions this week. Adding onto that, we have seen strong corn export demand. Looking ahead, President Trump is set to meet with Chinese President Xi on Sept. 24th. With the importance of U.S.-China agricultural purchases to the grain markets, it will be interesting to see what comes from that meeting and whether it creates additional demand.

Above are a few charts to put into perspective on how much we have gained in just the past few months. Even if you missed the highest point in the market, it is not too late to get something locked in as we are still well above prices we have been seeing for months. If you have not taken advantage of this market, don’t wait! Please reach out if you are interested in any contracting options or have any questions.

Have a great Labor Day Weekend!